National Up Again

cunliffe, keyKey’s Party soars higher–while Cunliffe and Labour fall even lower

By Alan Tristram

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows a strong rise in support for National (51%, up 3%) and a substantial lead over a potential Labour/Greens alliance (38.5%, down 1.5%).

And it’s just over two months from the General Election on September 20.

Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little overall — with the Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%); Act NZ (0.5%, down 0.5%); and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).

Support for the Labour Party is 23.5% (down 4.5% – the lowest since November 2011 – just before the 2011 NZ Election), the Greens are 15% (up 3% – the highest since September 2013).

New Zealand First is 6% (up 0.5%) and the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 1.5% (down 1%). Support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others are 0% (down 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now, the Poll shows that the result would be an easy victory for the National Party and a third term for Prime Minister John Key.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up slightly to 142.5pts (up 1pt) with 65.5% (up 0.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 23% (down 0.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is substantially higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence this week fell to 90pts (down 5.5pts).

Gary Morgan says:

“The latest Roy Morgan Poll shows National (51%, up 3% in a fortnight) increasing a strong election-winning lead over a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (38.5%, down 1.5%). The poll shows that the recent Labour Party Congress at which Opposition Leader David Cunliffe pledged increased spending on education of over $850 million over four years has failed to generate a positive response from the electorate.

“Cunliffe has also apparently ruled out doing any deals with the left-wing Internet-Mana Party alliance that would allow either Mana Party Leader Hone Harawira or Internet Party Leader Laila Harre to serve as Ministers in a future Labour Government. Cunliffe indicated his preference would be to do deals with the more established Greens and NZ First.

“While Prime Minister John Key has departed New Zealand for a 10-day holiday in Hawaii, National now have their largest lead over Labour since the last New Zealand Election and are well on track to win their third election in a row.”