Warmer Weather Ahead

Above Average Temperatures Predicted

for Kapiti Coast as Winter Starts

April 30, 2010

The NIWA National Climate Centre is predicting a mild start to Winter on the Kapiti Coast — with temperatures above average.

NIWA (National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research) says above average seasonal temperatures are likely.

Rainfall totals are likely to be near normal, while stream flows and soil moisture levels are equally likely to be in the near normal or below normal range, for the three months as a whole.

In the latest seasonal outlook, NIWA says that mean temperatures are likely to be above average in the North Island and either average or above average in the South Island, for the three months May–July. However, short-term cold snaps typical of winter will still occur.

Tropical El Nino ‘fading past’


The El Niño in the tropical Pacific is fading fast and is likely to be gone by June. Neutral conditions (no El Niño or La Niña) are expected over the winter.

Near normal seasonal rainfalls are likely in many places, but the Centre says that eastern regions of both Islands are likely to experience normal or below normal rainfalls. In the driest parts of the country, low soil moistures and stream flows are likely to continue into winter. In contrast, normal or above normal rainfall is likely the west and south of the South Island.

The centre’s latest outlook states that mean sea level pressures are likely to be lower than normal south of the country, associated with stronger than normal westerlies over New Zealand, on average for May–July.

For May–July, normal or below normal soil moisture levels and stream flows are likely over most of the country, but near normal or above normal soil moisture levels and stream flows are likely in the west and south of the South Island.

NIWA says the overall picture is as follows:

Temperature:

Temperatures are likely to be above average in the North Island, and average or above average in the South Island. Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average in the Tasman Sea, and below average to the south and southeast of New Zealand.

Rainfall, soil moisture, and stream flows:

Rainfall is likely to be near normal over much of the country, but normal or below normal in eastern regions and normal or above normal in the west and south of the South Island. Normal or below normal soil moisture levels and stream flows are likely over most of the country, but near normal or above normal soil moisture levels and stream flows are likely in the west and south of the South Island.

No Comments

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.