Nats down; Labour up


National lead cut by 5% as Labour support jumps

Latest Roy Morgan poll

By Alan Tristram

The latest Roy Morgan shows National has gone down 5% — and its lead over a Labour/ Greens coalition has been cut significantly.

The poll theoretically puts NZ First’s Winston Peters in position as a potential kingmaker, as long as his party gets 5% of the vote.

It comes after PM John  Key ruled out a pre-election agreement with Conservative Party, but said National would consider a deal with NZ First (now on 5%).

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a large fall in support for National (46%, down 5% – the lowest since May). Labour and the Greens are now on 42%, up 3.5%.

National has suffered this significant drop in its lead over a potential Labour/Greens alliance  just two months before the New Zealand Election on September 20.

Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little overall with the Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%), Act NZ (0.5%, unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for the Labour Party is 30% (up 6.5%), but the Greens are down 3% to 12%. Potential ‘king-makers’ NZ First are on 5% (down 1%), the Internet-Mana Party alliance is 2.5% (up 1%). Support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 1% (up 1%).

If a National Election were held now, the Poll shows that the result would likely depend on which major party New Zealand First decided to back to lead a Government – this is contingent on NZ First gaining at least 5% support and being returned to Parliament.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 135pts (down 7.5pts) with 60% (down 5.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 25% (up 2%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. The New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is substantially higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence this week rose to 99.5pts (up 9.5pts) [].

Gary Morgan comments:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a definite tightening between the governing National (46%, down 5% in a fortnight) and a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (42%, up 3.5%). Crucially, Prime Minister John Key has this week ruled out making a pre-election agreement deal with the right-wing Conservative Party led by Colin Craig in the seat of East Coast Bays, while at the same time encouraging National voters to support United Future Leader Peter Dunne in the seat of Ohariu and Act NZ candidate David Seymour in the seat of Epsom.

“In addition, Key has also floated the possibility of doing a deal with former National Party Cabinet Minister, and current New Zealand First (5%, down 1%) Leader, Winston Peters – but that Peters must state his position on a number of issues.

“Today’s NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows Peters may once again hold a key position in determining who the New Zealand Prime Minister is after September’s election – as long as NZ First can gain more than the threshold of 5%.” support nationwide.”